The NFL draft isn’t until April 26-28 in Arlington, Texas, but it’s never too early to take a look at how things could play out in the first round. Last year in my final mock draft, I correctly projected 26 of the 32 players that would be selected in the first round, with four going to the designated team I projected.
My picks are based on observations, team needs, scouting service and various NFL sources:
1. Cleveland Browns (0-16): QB Sam Darnold, 6-4, 225, USC
Comment: In a perfect world, the Browns would take UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen, but he’s made it pretty clear he doesn’t want to play in Cleveland and the Browns can’t make him. Their best bet, now that Darnold has declared for the draft and recently said he’d “be honored to play for any team,” is to go with the USC QB. With new GM John Dorsey in charge of the front office, the Browns can freely move on from DeShone Kizer. Going with Rosen could just get ugly.
2. New York Giants (3-13): QB Josh Rosen, 6-4, 210, UCLA
Comment: In this scenario, the Giants stay with Eli Manning to start the 2018 season and let Rosen develop for a year. If they make a change in-season, so be it. Rosen projects as the best pocket-passing QB in this year’s class and he wants to be play for the Giants. This looks like a very good fit. Oklahoma tackle Orlando Brown is another option if the Giants truly think young QB Davis Webb is an option as the team’s future quarterback.
3. Indianapolis Colts (4-14): RB Saquon Barkley, 5-11, 223, Penn State
Comment: Barkley looks like the real thing and in an era of young, elite running backs in the NFL, he could be the next great one. He’ll make a valuable offensive weapon for a team that desperately needs one and can help ease Andrew Luck back into the swing of things. Barkley averaged 5.7 yards per carry this past season as a junior and is a very good pass receiver as well.
4. Cleveland Browns (via Texans): OT Orlando Brown, 6-8, 360, Oklahoma
Comment: Brown grades out so far as the best offensive tackle prospect in the draft, if not the best offensive lineman overall, and with veteran left tackle Joe Thomas at the end of his Hall of Fame career, this would be an ideal second pick and a can’t-miss for the Browns, who have missed far too often in recent years.
5. Denver Broncos (5-11): QB Baker Mayfield, 6-1, 218, Oklahoma
Comment: This may seem a little high for Mayfield, but his draft status has been soaring, and even though the Broncos invested a first-round pick a year ago in quarterback Paxton Lynch, don’t think for a minute that John Elway will pass on a quarterback everyone seems to love in this year’s draft class. They will also be looking at guards and tackles.
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6. New York Jets (5-11): QB Lamar Jackson, 6-3, 200, Louisville
Comment: It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if four quarterbacks are gone by this point – it’s just a matter of which order they get drafted. A running back and tackle is also on their radar.
7.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11): DE Bradley Chubb, 6-4, 275, North Carolina State
Comment: With an expected mad rush for all the quarterbacks, the Buccaneers could actually come away with the steal of the draft and take what could be the best prospect of all of them in Chubb, whose talent and expectations are sky high.
8. Chicago Bears (5-11):WR Calvin Ridley, 6-1, 190, Alabama
Comment: Personally, I think the Bears could do better than this, but Ridley is going to project as one of the best wide receivers in the draft and that is a position of need for young QB Mitch Trubisky. That’s what I seem them doing, though, even though they’d be better served going defense here with so many more talented players ranked incredibly higher than Ridley. Oh well, that’s the Bears.
*9. Oakland Raiders (6-10): LB Roquan Smith, 6-1, 225, Georgia
Comment: They need help at inside linebacker, cornerback and safety and they’ll have plenty of options this high in the draft. Smith might not be the perfect fit, but you never know with the Raiders.
*10 San Francisco 49ers: G Quenton Nelson, 6-5, 329, Notre Dame
Comment: They could go wide receiver here, but if they truly want quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to succeed, they need to protect him first and there is an obvious need in the interior of their offensive line.
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11. Miami Dolphins (6-10): DE Clelin Ferrell, 6-5, 265, Clemson
Comment: Get used to seeing this kid in the Top 10 of many Mock Drafts, although I think you’re going to have to wait to see at the combine whether he really project this high in reality. Cornerback is a position where the Dolphins could really help themselves, but it’s not the strongest draft class for those this year. They also need a guard and will be looking at running backs.
12. Cincinnati Bengals (7-9): OT Mike McGlinchey, 6-8, 312, Notre Dame
Comment: Considering these guys decided to give coach Marvin Lewis a two-year contract extension, they are liable to do almost anything, like drafting a quarterback. Assuming they stick to script, which is assuming a lot, I say they get themselves one of the best offensive linemen available and this is, so far, at least, one of them. Another area of need is linebacker.
13. Washington Redskins (7-9): S Derwin James, 6-3, 211, Florida State
Comment: If quarterback Kirk Cousins were to leave, then the Redskins could go quarterback here. With so many off the board, though, that seems a little premature and short-sighted. They’d be better off anyway taking one of the highest-ranked prospects in the entire draft in James, who is young but very talented.
14. Green Bay Packers (7-9): OLB Arden Key, 6-6, 238, LSU
Comment: This could prove to be a hell of a value pick for the Packers, although cornerback and running back remain viable options for them as well. Key is a player whose draft stock should rise exponentially at the combine, and that’s why he could easily fall in this range. They might opt for a cornerback here.
15. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): QB Josh Allen, 6-5, 240, Wyoming
Comment: I can see the Cardinals making a play for a new starting quarterback via a trade or free agency before settling on Allen, although he is no slouch whatsoever. If they can’t get a quarterback such as Kirk Cousins or someone of his ilk, however, I’m OK with Allen. If they’ve already found their new QB, look for the Cardinals to go wide receiver, cornerback or offensive line with this pick, assuming they don’t trade up for one of the top QBs available.
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16. Baltimore Ravens (9-7): WR Courtland Sutton, 6-4, 215, SMU
Comment: It’s no secret these guys are coveting a wide receiver and although Sutton is incredibly young, the skill set is there. They could go running back, tight end or linebacker here and it wouldn’t be a surprise.
17. Los Angeles Chargers (9-7): OT Connor Williams, 6-6, 320, Texas
Comment: It almost seems like a foregone conclusion that the Chargers will go offensive tackle here. If they do, and I think they will also, this should be the pick. Assuming, that is, everything goes swell for Williams at the combine. Quarterback and linebacker are also options here.
18. Seattle Seahawks (9-7): CB Joshua Jackson, 6-1, 192, Iowa
Comment: While I can see the Seahawks drafting an offensive lineman here, there’s no time like the present to start replacing members of the depleted Legion of Boom secondary and Jackson, so far, looks like the best bet at this point in the draft to do it.
19. Dallas Cowboys (9-7): WR James Washington, 6-0, 205, Oklahoma State
Comment: This isn’t the sexiest pick for the Cowboys, but I’m assuming they are going to let Dez Bryant walk as a free agent and they’ll need to find a new No.1 wide receiver. They’ll know if they need one in plenty of enough time to isolate their favorite one on this draft and it won’t be a shocker if they trade up to get the one they like, assuming it isn’t this guy. Tight end, defensive tackle and cornerback are other needs.
20. Detroit Lions (9-7): RB Derrius Guice, 5-11, 212, LSU
Comment: They really should pay more attention to their needs on defense with this high of a pick in the first round, but I get the feeling that the Lions will be pressured into making some sort of splash on offense and Guice is a back that many fans will be screaming for them to pick. Hey, he could be a stud that Ameer Abdullah proved he clearly isn’t.
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**21. Tennessee Titans (9-7): S Minkah Fitzpatrick, 6-1, 201, Alabama
Comment: This is probably a lot lower than where Fitzpatrick ends up, but free safeties don’t typically go all that high in today’s NFL, even the talented ones. He could and probably should, be a Top 12 pick. The Titans will also be in the market for an edge rusher, a guard and possibly, a tight end.
**22. Buffalo Bills (9-7): CB Denzel Ward, 6-0, 191, Ohio State
Comment: There will be a ton of Bills fans screaming for a quarterback here and sure, that could be an option, I suppose. But I’m trusting the new regime in Buffalo and that they will focus on what they need the most, which is defense and specifically, help in the secondary. Ward could be a steal at this point in the draft.
**23. Atlanta Falcons (9-7): DE/OLB Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, 6-1, 242, Oklahoma
Comment: He’s a little undersized, but full of potential and so far, rates high enough for the Falcons to score a win at this stage in the first round. Defense is likely where these guys will focus, regardless. A safety could be the pick.
**24. Carolina Panthers (11-5): WR Anthony Miller, 5-11, 190, Memphis
Comment: They could go offensive tackle or defensive end here and it wouldn’t be a surprise, but Cam Newton needs a reliable receiver, even if he and the organization doesn’t think it’s a problem that he runs with the ball far too often for his own good. He runs incredibly well, for the record.
**25. Buffalo Bills (via Chiefs): DT Vita Vea, 6-5, 344, Washington
Comment: If the Bills get both of the players I have projected going to them, Buffalo fans will still be screaming for a quarterback. They’d be getting a couple of fantastic picks, however. If they really want one of the top-tiered QBs, they can package their two first-round picks, offer some other incentives, and move up to get him.
READ MORE:How Vita Vea grew from grayshirt to Pac-12 Defensive POY
**26. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6): WR Marcell Ateman, 6-4, 220, Oklahoma State
Comment: We’ll have to see what they do at quarterback in free agency, but assuming they don’t go after one here, Ateman is an intriguing pick. The Jags need a contingency plan for Allen Robinson, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent. Ateman is a huge target like Robinson and my guess is that he’s going to be a very good pro.
**27. Los Angeles Rams (11-5): DT Maurice Hurst, 6-2, 282, Michigan
Comment: The Rams actually don’t need a ton of help, but they could use some depth and a few players to challenge some of their starters. Hurst, assuming he lasts this long, is somebody who can push for playing time in a rotational role. That being said, the Rams will also be looking at cornerback, offensive linemen and a linebacker.
**28. Minnesota Vikings (13-3): OG Will Hernandez, 6-3, 330, Texas-El Paso
Comment: We’ll see how they proceed at quarterback next season, but whoever is the starter in 2018, it’s clear that the Vikings could use an upgrade on their offensive line, particularly on the interior side of things. Hernandez grades out as the second-best guard available and he’d make for a solid pick.
**29. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3): TE Mark Andrews, 6-5, 253, Oklahoma
Comment: I won’t be shocked if the Steelers draft a quarterback with one of their top two or three picks, especially if Ben Roethlisberger lets them know early enough of his intention for 2018 and beyond. I think he’s staying and if that’s the case, the Steelers get a steal at pick No.30 with the best tight end in the draft. It’s not like they couldn’t use a guy like this, either. They’ll also be targeting an inside linebacker and a safety here.
**30. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3): OT Kolton Miller, 6-8, 310, UCLA
Comment: Miller might not last this long, but because this isn’t known yet as a deep draft for tackles, there’s a chance and the Eagles would jump at it. Given Jason Peters’ knee injury, Miller can be groomed and developed in enough time to start next season. Cornerback is another area of need.
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**31. New Orleans Saints: ILB Tremaine Edmunds, 6-5, 236, Virginia Tech
Comment: The Saints’ defense made incredible strides this season and adding a run-stuffer like Edmunds would be ideal. He’s a veritable tank of a player who will only make this defense better and bring some attitude and nastiness. Could the Saints draft a quarterback here instead? It’s possible.
**32. New England Patriots (13-3): ILB Rashaan Evans, 6-3, 234, Alabama
Comment: Imagine an Alabama tandem of Dont’a Hightower and Evans patrolling the middle for the Patriots. It’s an intriguing enough scenario for Bill Belichick to consider, although he’ll probably surprise us all on the first day of the draft. And edge rusher or a cornerback might also be the way to go. At some point, they’ll also have to do something about finding a quarterback after trading away both Jacoby Brissett and Jimmy Garoppolo.
*--Position to be decided by a coin flip at the scouting combine.
**--Projected draft order prior to playoffs.
Reach McManaman at bob.mcmanaman@arizonarepublic.com. Follow him on Twitter @azbobbymac and listen to him live every Wednesday night between 7-9 on Fox Sports 910-AM on The Freaks with Kenny and Crash.
